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How Will Donald Trump 2.0 Affect India-US Relations?

By Consultants Review Team Wednesday, 06 November 2024

After defeating Democratic candidate Kamala Harris in the US presidential election, Republican candidate Donald Trump is poised to assume office. With Trump about to begin his second term as president, his return to power holds various implications for India.

New Delhi is closely following US polls in sectors ranging from trade technology to energy and defense cooperation. The return of Trump to power is expected to have a ripple effect on the Indian economy. India's future relationship with the United States could now take a new turn.

Trump has already expressed his desire to strengthen ties with New Delhi, and he has made public pledges to strengthen what he refers to as the two countries' "great partnership". In a recent post on X, ahead of the US elections, Trump reaffirmed his friendship and closeness with Prime Minister Narendra Modi.

The two leaders' friendliness was on full display at events such as "Howdy, Modi!" and "Namaste Trump," which became a cornerstone of India-US ties during Trump's prior tenure.

It is important to note that Washington is the main destination for Indian merchandise exports. In 2023-24, US imports into India totaled $42.2 billion, while Indian exports totaled $77.52 billion.

As a candidate, Donald Trump has made it apparent that he plans to overhaul the United States' foreign policy, with a strong emphasis on "America First" ideals. Foreign Minister S Jaishankar recently stated, in response to US poll findings, that regardless of who wins the election between Trump and Kamala Harris, Washington will become more isolationist.

With Trump at the helm of affairs, his second term presents both opportunities and problems in several critical areas, including trade, immigration, military cooperation, and diplomacy.

Trump's foreign policy strategy prioritizes American interests while reducing involvement in multilateral agreements. During his second term, Trump's policies may continue to upset longstanding US alliances and accords, including those with New Delhi.

One area where the Trump administration is expected to have an impact on New Delhi-Washington relations is commerce. Last month, the former US President said that it has the highest taxes on foreign imports and promised to implement a reciprocal tax if elected.

The Trump administration's possible tariff policies could have an impact on India's IT, pharmaceutical, and textile sectors, which all rely on the US market.

On the other side, the ongoing campaign to decouple from China may provide fresh chances for fresh Delhi to portray itself as a manufacturing hub, enticing US corporations looking to diversify their supply chains away from Beijing.

Immigration Issue

In the past, Trump's attitude on immigration, particularly the H-1B visa program, has affected Indian professionals. During his first term, he attempted to raise salary standards for foreign workers and impose new limitations, which posed issues for Indian IT specialists and technology enterprises. If these regulations are reinstated, they may have an impact on the Indian talent pool in the United States, as well as on software companies that rely on competent Indian workers.

Military Ties and Defense Cooperation

In recent years, defense and military cooperation have been pillars of the two countries' relationship. The historic Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technology (iCET) and defense partnerships such as the GE-HAL agreement for jet engine manufacturing have been among the highlights of India-US ties under Joe Biden's presidency.

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